Assessment of Hydraulic Conditions Supporting the Recruitment of Asian Carp in the Illinois Waterway - A Case Study Using Known Spawning Events of 2015

The upstream movement of Asian carp in the Illinois Waterway poses a potential threat to the Great Lakes. If established within the Great Lakes, Asian carp may disrupt the food web and harm the ecosystems of the Great Lakes. Understanding the Asian carp reproduction, including the timing and locations of adult spawning and the transport and dispersal of eggs and larvae, is essential information for managing the Asian carp population in the Illinois Waterway. The Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) model, a Lagrangian particle tracking model, has been used to study the transport and dispersal of eggs and larvae. The FluEgg model inputs are water temperature and hydraulic properties. At present, field measured or modeled hydraulics from steady-state simulations have been used in FluEgg modeling and the applications have shown useful results for evaluating Asian carp reproduction in the Illinois Waterway. However, there is a need to use data based on more representative time-variable hydraulic conditions from spawning to the time larvae reach the Gas Bladder Inflation Stage (GBI). The GBI stage is critical because that is the stage when the young fish seek nursery habitat. In June 2015, Asian carp spawning was observed at two locations along the Illinois Waterway, one below Starved Rock Lock and Dam near Utica, and the one in the La Grange Pool near Havana, Illinois. This study analyzes how hydraulic modeling can improve the predictability of the FluEgg model. An unsteady HEC-RAS hydraulic model of the Illinois Waterway from Brandon Road Lock and Dam to Grafton, Illinois was used to reproduce the June 2015 flood event. Hydraulic data from HEC-RAS modeling, including predicted spatial and temporal discharge, water depth, and shear velocity; and measured water temperature data were used as input to the FluEgg model. FluEgg simulation results illustrate the downstream drifting of eggs and larvae until reaching the GBI stage. These simulation results can be analyzed, along with habitat maps, to evaluate the possibility of successful recruitment and to identify nursery habitats. This presentation communicates the important connections between hydraulic characteristics, thermal conditions, the development of eggs and larvae of Asian carp, and the likelihood of recruitment success.