Searching for forcing signatures in decadal patterns of shoreline change

Analysis of shoreline position at spatial scales of the order 10 - 100 km and at a multi-decadal time-scale has the potential to reveal regional coherence (or lack of) in the primary controls on shoreline tendencies and trends. Such information is extremely valuable for the evaluation of climate forcing on coastal behaviour. Segmenting a coast into discrete behaviour units based on these types of analyses is often subjective, however, and in the context of pervasive human interventions and alongshore variability in ocean climate, determining the most important controls on shoreline dynamics can be challenging. Multivariate analyses provide one means to resolve common behaviours across shoreline position datasets, thereby underpinning a more objective evaluation of possible coupling between shorelines at different scales. In an analysis of the Suffolk coast (eastern England) we explore the use of multivariate statistics to understand and classify mesoscale coastal behaviour. Suffolk comprises a relatively linear shoreline that shifts from east-facing in the north to southeast-facing in the south. Although primarily formed of a beach foreshore backed by cliffs or shingle barrier, the shoreline is punctuated at 3 locations by narrow tidal inlets with offset entrances that imply a persistent north to south sediment transport direction. Tidal regime decreases south to north from mesotidal (3.6m STR) to microtidal (1.9m STR), and the bimodal wave climate (northeast and southwest modes) presents complex local-scale variability in nearshore conditions. Shorelines exhibit a range of decadal behaviours from rapid erosion (up to 4m/yr) to quasi-stability that cannot be directly explained by the spatial organisation of contemporary landforms or coastal defences. A multivariate statistical approach to shoreline change analysis helps to define the key modes of change and determine the most likely forcing factors.