Volcanoes Distribution in Linear Segmentation of Mariana Arc

A new method has been developed to describe better volcanoes distribution pattern within Mariana Arc. A previous study assumed the distribution of volcanoes in the Mariana Arc is described by a small circle distribution which reflects the melting processes in a curved subduction zone. The small circle fit to this dataset used in the study, comprised 12 -mainly subaerial- volcanoes from Smithsonian Institute Global Volcanism Program, was reassessed by us to have a root-mean-square misfit of 2.5 km. The same method applied to a more complete dataset from Baker et al. (2008), consisting 37 subaerial and submarine volcanoes, resulted in an 8.4 km misfit. However, using the Hough Transform method on the larger dataset, lower misfits of great circle segments were achieved (3.1 and 3.0 km) for two possible segments combination. The results indicate that the distribution of volcanoes in the Mariana Arc is better described by a great circle pattern, instead of small circle. Variogram and cross-variogram analysis on volcano spacing and volume shows that there is spatial correlation between volcanoes between 420 and 500 km which corresponds to the maximum segmentation lengths from Hough Transform (320 km). Further analysis of volcano spacing by the coefficient of variation (Cv), shows a tendency toward not-random distribution as the Cv values are closer to zero than one. These distributions are inferred to be associated with the development of normal faults at the back arc as their Cv values also tend towards zero. To analyse whether volcano spacing is random or not, Cv values were simulated using a Monte Carlo method with random input. Only the southernmost segment has allowed us to reject the null hypothesis that volcanoes are randomly spaced at 95% confidence level by 0.007 estimated probability. This result shows infrequent regularity in volcano spacing by chance so that controlling factor in lithospheric scale should be analysed with different approach (not from random number generator). Sunda Arc which has been studied to have en enchelon segmentation and larger number of volcanoes will be further studied to understand particular upper plate influence in volcanoes distribution.