Structural characteristics around the frontal thrust along the Nankai Trough revealed by bathymetric and seismic reflection survey

Great earthquakes with tsunamis with recurrence intervals of 100-200 years have occurred along the Nankai Trough near central Japan where the Shikoku Basin is subducting with thick sediments on the Philippine Sea plate. To predict the exact height of the tsunami on the coast region generated by these large ruptures, it is important to estimate the vertical deformation that occurs on the seaward end of the rupture area. Recent drilling results have also yielded evidence not only of splay faults that generate tsunamigenic rupture, but also new evidence of tsunamigenic rupture along the frontal thrust at the trench axis in the Nankai Trough. In order to understand the deformation around the frontal thrust at the trench axis, we conducted a dense high-resolution seismic reflection survey with 10-20 km spacing over 1500 km of line length during 2013 and 2014. Clear seismic reflection images of frontal thrusts in the accretionary prism and subducting Shikoku Basin, image deformation along the trench axis between off Muroto Cape and off Ashizuri Cape. The cumulative displacement along the frontal thrust and second thrust are measured from picked distinct reflectors in depth-converted profiles. The average value of cumulative displacement of the frontal thrust is more than 100 m within 2 km depth beneath the seafloor. The location of highest displacement of 300 m displacement agree with the seaward end of slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai event calculated by numerical simulations. We also evaluate the seaward structure for understanding the future rupture distribution. The protothrust zone (PTZ) consisting of many incipient thrusts is identifiable in the portion of trough-fill sediments seaward of the frontal thrust. In order to emphasize the characteristics of frontal thrust and PTZ, we construct the detailed relief image for focusing on the lineated slope of the PTZ at the trough axis. Although our surveys covered a part of Nankai seismogenic zone, it is important to evaluate the initiation and evolution of frontal thrust at the toe of Nankai trough axis. This study is part of "Research project for compound disaster mitigation on the great earthquakes and tsunamis around the Nankai Trough region" funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan.