Geomechanical modelling of induced seismicity using Coulomb stress and pore pressure changes

In recent years, there has been a dramatic increase in seismicity (earthquakes) due to anthropogenic activities related to the unconventional oil and gas exploration in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). There are compelling evidences that hydraulic fracturing and wastewater injection operations play a key role in induced seismicity in the WCSB; however, their physical mechanisms are still not fully understood. Therefore, this study focuses on exploring the physical mechanisms of induced seismicity and developing a realistic geomechanical model by incorporating the past seismicity and well production data. In this work, we model the Coulomb stress changes due to past moderate (magnitude greater than 3 with known fault plane solutions) induced earthquakes and pore pressure changes due to wastewater injection in Alberta, specifically in Fox Creek and Fort St. John areas. Relationships between Coulombs stress changes, fault geometry and orientation and subsequent earthquake locations are tested. Subsurface flow due to injection well operations is studied to model the pore pressure changes in time and space, using known well production data, which include well types, well locations and water extraction and injection rates. By modelling the changes in pore pressure and Coulomb stress, we aim at constraining the time scale of occurrence of possible future earthquakes. The anticipating results can help to control the parameters of anthropogenic energy related operations such as hydraulic fracturing and wastewater injection in mitigating the risk due to induced seismicity.