A comparative study of ground motion hybrid simulations and the modified NGA ground motion predictive equations for directivity and its application to the the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

We have simulated strong ground motions for two Mw>7.0 rupture scenarios on the North Anatolian Fault, in the Marmara Sea within 10-20 km from Istanbul. This city is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The increased risk in Istanbul is due to eight destructive earthquakes that ruptured the fault system and left a seismic gap at the western portion of the 1000km-long North Anatolian Fault Zone. To estimate the ground motion characteristics and its variability in the region we have simulated physics-based rupture scenarios, producing hybrid broadband time histories. We have merged two simulation techniques: a full 3D wave propagation method to generate low-frequency seismograms (Aochi and Ulrich, 2015) and the stochastic finite-fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to simulate high-frequency seismograms (Akinci et al., 2016, submitted to BSSA, 2016). They are merged to compute realistic broadband hybrid time histories. The comparison of ground motion intensity measures (PGA, PGV, SA) resulting from our simulations with those predicted by the recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in the region (Boore & Atkinson, 2008; Chiou & Young, 2008; Akkar & Bommer, 2010; Akkar & Cagnan, 2010) seems to indicate that rupture directivity and super-shear rupture effects affect the ground motion in the Marmara Sea region. In order to account for the rupture directivity we improve the comparison using the directivity predictor proposed by Spudich & Chiu (2008). This study highlights the importance of the rupture directivity for the hazard estimation in the Marmara Sea region, especially for the city of Istanbul.