Ceres' obliquity history: implications for permanently shadowed regions

The Dawn spacecraft's Framing Camera (FC) images and radio-tracking data have allowed precise determination of Ceres' rotational pole and obliquity. Presently, the obliquity (ɛ) of Ceres is ≈4°. Because of the low obliquity, permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) can exist on Ceres, and have been identified using both images and shape models (Schorghofer et al., 2016). These observations make Ceres only the third body in the solar system with recognized PSRs after the Moon (Zuber et al., 1997) and Mercury (Chabot et al., 2012). Some craters in Ceres' polar regions possess bright crater floor deposits (BCFD). These crater floors are typically in shadow. However, they receive light scattered from the surrounding sunlit crater walls and therefore can be seen by FC. These bright deposits are hypothesized to be water ice accumulated in PSR cold traps, analogous to the Moon (Watson et al., 1961). The existence of the PSRs critically depends on the body's obliquity. The goal of this work is to study the history of Ceres' obliquity. Knowing past obliquity variations can shed light on the history of PSRs, and can help constrain the water-ice deposition time scales. We integrate the obliquity of Ceres over the last 3 My for the range of C/MR2vol constrained by the Dawn gravity measurements (Park et al., 2016, Ermakov et al., 2016) using methods described in Wisdom & Holman (1991) and Touma & Wisdom (1994). The obliquity history for C/MR2vol=0.392 is shown in Fig. 1. The integrations show that the obliquity of Ceres undergoes large oscillations with the main period of T=25 ky and a maximum of 19.7°. The obliquity oscillations are driven by the periodic change of Ceres' orbit inclination (T=22 ky) and the pole precession (T=210 ky). Ceres passed a local obliquity minimum 1327 years ago when (ɛmin=2.4°). The most recent maximum was 13895 years ago (ɛmax=18.5°). At such high obliquity, most of the present-day PSRs receive direct sunlight. We find a correlation between BCFDs and the most persistent PSRs. In the northern hemisphere, we find that only two PSRs remain at ɛmax. Interestingly, these PSRs contain BCFDs. In the southern hemisphere, we find that only one crater with a BCFD remains in shadow at ɛmax. Ongoing work includes computation of the irradiance of individual BCFDs given the orbital and obliquity history.