Coordinating and Negotiating Blue Nile Water Resource Development

Many countries are proposing new reservoirs in transboundary river basins world-wide that impact downstream regions. Failure to consider and incorporate multiple stakeholder interests in system design and decision making could contribute to regional disputes. Negotiated introduction of new assets and associated coordination strategies (e.g. cost and power sharing arrangements) could reduce conflict and help achieve consensus. In multi-stakeholders problems, parties are likely to prioritize performance targets differently and hence will often prefer different water system designs, stalling negotiations. An ideal solution is where individual and group benefits are maximized by allocating (exchanging) resources according to the relative preferences of stakeholders. Hence, a negotiation support mechanism should be able to incorporate stakeholder preference information. In this paper, we propose a three-step search & deliberate, elicit preferences, and search & negotiate approach for supporting negotiations in complex infrastructure-environmental systems. The approach seeks to find designs and coordination mechanisms that are more beneficial than non-cooperative actions. The proposed approach is applied to a stylized Blue Nile reservoir design problem in Ethiopia seeking to set reservoir capacity and operating rules. We consider cost and energy performance metrics for Ethiopia and energy and irrigation water supply in Sudan. We use example stakeholder (i.e., Ethiopian and Sudanese) priorities for demonstration purpose. The result is an agreed system design and coordination schemes (co-financing and power trade). The application results demonstrate that incorporating coordination strategies, such as energy trade, cost sharing, and financing in assessing transboundary reservoir development options could help find compromise designs that different parties can support.