Wildland fire and climate variability impacts on annual streamflow in watersheds across the continental United States: Regional patterns and attribution analysis

The magnitude of wildland fire impacts on water resources varies regionally depending on fire severity, topography, vegetation and climate. An assessment of the potential threat that wildland fire poses to water supplies across the conterminous United States (CONUS) is critically important because forests supply 50% of consumed water. In our assessment, we first performed a double mass analysis of streamflow (GAGES-II) vs. precipitation (PRISM) data from 170 burned watersheds to identify changes in average water yield in the first five years following wildland fire (MTBS burn severity dataset), which were positive in 52 watersheds (Chow test p<0.1), negative in 69 (p<0.1), and not significant in 49 (p>0.1). Subsequently, we separated the respective contributions of fire and climate variability to changes in annual runoff (dQ) by fitting linear climate elasticity models (CEMs), yielding acceptable CEMs (coefficient p<0.1) for 106 watersheds. Median dQ (MdQ) for 62 watersheds with a burned area to drainage area ratio (BAR) <10% declined by -12%, mostly attributed to lower annual precipitation (P) (-16%) associated with regional climate trends, which was a common response in watersheds in the eastern states with low severity prescribed (Rx) or wildfires. MdQ increased by +11% in 44 watersheds with BAR >10%, notwithstanding overall declining P. These watersheds were for the greatest part located in the western CONUS, where dQ was correlated with burn severity (R2>0.53, variable per severity class) and PET (R2=0.73). The most severe impacts were observed in Arizona (2005 Cave Creek Complex, 2004 Edge Complex and 2004 Willow Fires), with BARs >39% and dQ>+160%, while hydrologic response in the east was much less extreme with only 10 cases where post-fire dQ increased >+10%. The clear regional patterns in post-fire Q together with evidence showing that downward trends in P can mask flow enhancing effects of fire disturbance (24 watersheds), underline the importance of the combined analysis of wildland fire and climate impacts in national scale assessments. Research funded by the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Joint Fire Science Program (#14-1-06-18), and Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (U.S. Department of Energy).