The role of minerals and mean annual temperature on soil carbon accumulation: A modeling analysis

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively cycling terrestrial C pool with mean residence times that can exceed 10,000 years. There is strong evidence suggesting that SOC dynamics depend on soil temperature and C inputs to soil through net primary production (NPP), but it is unclear what the relative importance of these factors is relative to SOC protection by minerals. Recent empirical studies have suggested that mineral protection explains more variation in SOC stock sizes and C respiration fluxes than does NPP or climate. Our previous modeling has demonstrated that representing the chemistry of mineral sorption in a microbially-explicit model affects the temperature sensitivity of SOC dynamics. We apply this modeling framework to interpret observations of SOC stocks, mineral surface availability, mean annual temperature (MAT), and NPP collected along a 4,000 km transect in South America. We use a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and regression to analyze our model output and the empirical data. This analysis shows that mineral surface availability is the dominant control over C respiration and SOC stock, and is substantially larger than the effects of belowground NPP. We further show that minerals interact with MAT to determine the observed range of SOC stocks along this transect in the present day, as well as projected SOC stocks under long-term warming. Our model-data comparison suggests that soil mineralogy and MAT will explain the majority of the spatial variation in SOC stock over decadal-to-millennial timescales. We extend the analysis of these interactions using the ACME Land Model (ALM) coupled with an explicit representation of microbes, minerals, and vertical transport of solutes and gases. The model results confirm the dominant effects of minerals on organic matter decomposition throughout the soil column.