Multiobjective Policy Analysis to Evaluate Air Quality Impacts of Oil and Gas Regulations

Unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) using hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has recently fostered an unprecedented acceleration in energy development. Regulations seek to protect the public health of communities in proximity to UOGD and the environmental quality of these regions, while maintaining economic benefits. One such regulation is the setback distance, which dictates the minimum distance between an oil and gas well and an occupied structure, such as a residential or commercial building, or an area of special concern. This presentation discusses a new policy analysis framework for UOGD regulations, using the Borg multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) coupled with AERMOD, a regulatory air dispersion model. The initial results explore how setback distance and well density regulations could impact the number of wells that can be drilled, based on a set of performance objectives that model potential increases in benzene, a hazardous air pollutant that has been linked to cancer and other detrimental health effects. The simulation calculates daily benzene averages using meteorological data from Greeley, CO. An important aspect of this work is to define representative quantitative objectives that accurately capture salient characteristics of the pollutant time series. For example, our framework will characterize the maximum concentration found over the entire spatial domain and over the duration of the simulation. Frequency-based objectives will also be explored, such as the number of exceedances of the benchmark annual average benzene concentration corresponding to a given level of cancer risk. The multiobjective analysis can also be expanded to integrate other objectives that represent performance-based outcomes on UOGD such as energy development profits, increases in noise pollution and decreases in property value. This research represents one application of how MOEAs can be used to inform policymaking for environmental regulations.