Groundwater-Quality Impacts from Natural-Gas Wellbore Leakage: Numerical Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrogeologic, Geostatistical, and Source-Term Parameterization at Varying Depths

The development of directional drilling and stimulation of reservoirs by hydraulic fracturing has transformed the energy landscape in the U.S. by making recovery of hydrocarbons from shale formations not only possible but economically viable. Activities associated with hydraulic fracturing present a set of water-quality challenges, including the potential for impaired groundwater quality. In this project, we use a three-dimensional, multiphase, multicomponent numerical model to investigate hydrogeologic conditions that could lead to groundwater contamination from natural gas wellbore leakage. This work explores the fate of methane that enters a well annulus, possibly from an intermediate formation or from the production zone via a flawed cement seal, and leaves the annulus at one of two depths: at the elevation of groundwater or below a freshwater aquifer. The latter leakage scenario is largely ignored in the current scientific literature, where focus has been on leakage directly into freshwater aquifers, despite modern regulations requiring steel casings and cement sheaths at these depths. We perform a three-stage sensitivity analysis, examining (1) hydrogeologic parameters of media surrounding a methane leakage source zone, (2) geostatistical variations in intrinsic permeability, and (3) methane source zone pressurization. Results indicate that in all cases methane reaches groundwater within the first year of leakage. To our knowledge, this is the first study to consider natural gas wellbore leakage in the context of multiphase flow through heterogeneous permeable media; advantages of multiphase modeling include more realistic analysis of methane vapor-phase relative permeability as compared to single-phase models. These results can be used to inform assessment of aquifer vulnerability to hydrocarbon wellbore leakage at varying depths.