Sub-seasonal Evaluation of East African Rainfall for Improved Hydrologic Forecasting
Abstract
The East African region contains the headwaters of several major rivers, and is undergoing active construction of multiple dam projects for hydropower production and irrigation. Skillful forecasts days to seasonal timescales have the potential to improve the management and operation of these projects. The operational use of skillful precipitation and hydrologic forecasts at short to seasonal lead times for the management of the hydropower projects in the region is currently limited, but would be a key component of improving decision making tools. An increased understanding of the sub-seasonal behavior of precipitation including links to large-scale drivers and long-term changes can be used to improve existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasting products available for the region. We have investigated the sub-seasonal and spatially-dependent connections between East African precipitation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), showing through composite and correlation analysis the changes in dynamics that correspond to high and low precipitation years. We have also evaluated the long-term trends in precipitation in different sub-regions using a Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model. This increased understanding can be used to identify precursor conditions that NWP forecasting models could potentially utilize to enhance their skill in the region.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.H14A..04B
- Keywords:
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- 1855 Remote sensing;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1874 Ungaged basins;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1895 Instruments and techniques: monitoring;
- HYDROLOGY