Stochastic error model corrections to improve the performance of bottom-up precipitation products for hydrologic applications

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. However, uncertainties in the SM2RAIN product are still not well known and could represent a limitation in utilizing this dataset for hydrological applications. Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty associated with SM2RAIN is necessary for enabling its use. The study is conducted over the Italian territory for a 5-yr period (2010-2014). A number of satellite precipitation error properties, typically used in error modeling, are investigated and include probability of detection, false alarm rates, missed events, spatial correlation of the error, and hit biases. After this preliminary uncertainty analysis, the potential of applying the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D to correct SM2RAIN and to improve its performance in hydrologic applications is investigated. The use of SREM2D for characterizing the error in precipitation by SM2RAIN would be highly useful for the merging and the integration steps in its algorithm, i.e., the merging of multiple soil moisture derived products (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, ASCAT) and the integration of soil moisture derived and state of the art satellite precipitation products (e.g., GPM IMERG).