A Late Cenozoic Kinematic Model for Deformation Within the Greater Cascadia Subduction System

Relatively low fault slip rates have complicated efforts to characterize seismic hazards associated with the diffuse subduction boundary between North America and offshore oceanic plates in the Pacific Northwest region. A kinematic forward model that encompasses a broader region, and incorporates seismologic and geodetic as well as geologic and paleomagnetic constraints offers a tool for constraining fault rupture chronologies—all within a framework tracking relative motion of the Juan de Fuca, Pacific, and North American plates during late Cenozoic time. Our kinematic model tracks motions as a system of rigid microplates, bounded by the more important mapped faults of the region or zones of distributed deformation. Though our emphasis is on Washington and Oregon, the scope of the model extends eastward to the rigid craton in Montana and Wyoming, and southward to the Sierra Nevada block of California to provide important checks on its internal consistency. The model reproduces observed geodetic velocities [e.g., McCaffrey et al., 2013, JGR], for 6 Ma to present, with only minor reorganization for 12-6 Ma. Constraints for the older deformation history are based on paleomagnetic rotations within the Columbia River Basalt Group, and geologic details of fault offsets. Since 17 Ma, our model includes 50 km of N-S shortening across the central Yakima fold and thrust belt, substantial NW-SE right-lateral strike slip distributed among faults in the Washington Cascade Range, 90 km of shortening on thrusts of Puget Lowland, and substantial oroclinal bending of the Crescent Formation basement surrounding the Olympic Peninsula. This kinematic reconstruction provides an integrated, quantitative framework with which to investigate the motions of various PNW forearc and backarc blocks during late Cenozoic time, an essential tool for characterizing the seismic risk associated with the Puget Sound and Portland urban areas, hydroelectric dams, and other critical infrastructure.