Volcanic CO2 Emissions and Glacial Cycles: Coupled Oscillations

Following the mid-Pleistocene transition, the dominant period of glacial cycles changed from 40 ka to 100 ka. It is broadly accepted that the 40 ka glacial cycles were driven by cyclical changes in obliquity. However, this forcing does not explain the 100 ka glacial cycles. Mechanisms proposed for 100 ka cycles include isostatic bed depression and proglacial lakes destabilising the Laurentide ice sheet, non-linear responses to orbital eccentricity, and Antarctic ice sheets influencing deep-ocean stratification. None of these are universally accepted. Here we investigate the hypothesis that variations in volcanic CO2 emissions can cause 100 ka glacial cycles. Any proposed mechanism for 100 ka glacial cycles must give the Earth's climate system a memory of 10^4 - 10^5years. This timescale is difficult to achieve for surface processes, however it is possible for the solid Earth. Recent work suggests volcanic CO2 emissions change in response to glacial cycles [1] and that there could be a 50 ka delay in that response [2]. Such a lagged response could drive glacial cycles from 40 ka cycles to an integer multiple of the forcing period. Under what conditions could the climate system admit such a response? To address this, we use a simplified climate model modified from Huybers and Tziperman [3]. Our version comprises three component models for energy balance, ice sheet growth and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The model is driven by insolation alone with other components varying according to a system of coupled, differential equations. The model is run for 500 ka to produce several glacial cycles and the resulting changes in global ice volume and atmospheric CO2 concentration.We obtain a switch from 40 ka to 100 ka cycles as the volcanic CO2 response to glacial cycles is increased. These 100 ka cycles are phase-locked to obliquity, lasting 80 or 120 ka. Whilst the MOR response required (in this model) is larger than plausible estimates based on [2], it illustrates the potential of MOR CO2 feedbacks to generate 100 ka glacial cycles [1] Huybers & Langmuir, 2009[2] Burley & Katz, 2015 [3] Huybers & Tziperman, 2008