A Two Time-scale response of the Southern Ocean to the Ozone Hole: Regional Responses and Mechanisms

The impact of changing ozone on the climate of the Southern Ocean is evaluated using an ensemble of coupled climate models. By imposing a step change from 1860 to 2000 conditions we are able to estimate response functions associated with this change. Two time scales are found, an initial cooling centered in the Southwest Pacific followed by cooling in the Pacific sector and then warming in both sectors. The physical processes that drive this response are different across time periods and locations, as is the sign of the response itself. Initial cooling in the Pacific sector is not just driven by the increased winds pushing cold water northward, but also by a decrease in surface salinity reducing wintertime mixing and increased ice and clouds reflecting more shortwave radiation back to space. The decrease in salinity is primarily driven by a southward shift of precipitation associated with a shifting storm track, coupled with decreased evaporation associated with colder surface temperatures. A subsurface increase in heat associated with this reduction in mixing then upwells along the Antarctic coast, producing a subsequent warming. Similar changes in convective activity occur in the Weddell Sea but are offset in time.