Strategy to Conduct Quantitative Ecohydrologic Analysis of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada

The 6000 km2 Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a Ramsar Convention Wetland and UNESCO World Heritage Site ("in Danger" status pending) where hydropower development and climate change are creating ecological impacts through desiccation and reduction in Delta shoreline habitat. We focus on ecohydrologic changes and mitigation and adaptation options to advance the field of ecohydrology using interdisciplinary technology by combining, for the first time, satellite remote sensing and hydrologic simulation with individual-based population modeling of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), a species native to the Delta whose population dynamics are strongly controlled by the hydrology of floodplain lakes. We are building a conceptual and quantitative modeling framework linking climate change, upstream water demand, and hydrologic change in the floodplain to muskrat population dynamics with the objective of exploring the impacts of these stressors on this ecosystem. We explicitly account for cultural and humanistic influences and are committed to effective communication with the regional subsistence community that depends on muskrat for food and income. Our modeling framework can ultimately serve as the basis for improved stewardship and sustainable development upstream of stressed freshwater deltaic, coastal and lake systems worldwide affected by climate change, providing a predictive tool to quantify population changes of animals relevant to regional subsistence food security and commercial trapping.