"A remote sensing approach to determining susceptibility of national park forest areas to forecasted changes in precipitation and temperature"

The United States designates 59 protected areas around the country as national parks, totaling around 51.9 million acres. With the exception of a few, the majority of these parks feature forested areas of biological and/or historical importance. Depending on their location, these forested areas are threatened by climate change in the form of decreasing precipitation and/or increasing temperatures, which can result in significant drying resulting in increased susceptibility to threats and resultant tree mortality. This study aims to survey the forested areas of America's national parks and determine their susceptibility to climate-induced drying. Land cover derived from remotely sensed multispectral data was used to characterize forested areas within national parks. Multiple climate change scenarios to end of century were taken from the NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projections (DEX _DCP30) dataset and were compared with the forested areas. Forests projected to experience both an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation were considered most at risk. A susceptibility analysis was performed to develop an index that would identify these areas most prone to negative effects from climate change in low (B1), medium (A1B), and high (A2) emissions scenarios. With this information, park officials can better focus efforts to monitor and preserve their forested areas.