Adapting an IPCC-Compliant Full Forest Carbon Accounting Model to Determine the Effects of Different Forest Management Strategies in California

As California experiences increasing rates of disturbance events such as wildfire, drought, and insect outbreaks, understanding how different management strategies affect long-term forest carbon stock changes in the forest and in harvested wood products used by society will be key to determining strategies to best maximize forest-related carbon sequestration in the future. California's forest area is roughly evenly split across three ownership types: private timberlands, National Forest timberlands, and reserved forests. Forest management strategies in California generally vary by these ownerships; management in reserved lands sequesters carbon within the forest (i.e. leaves wood in the forest), while on private and National Forest timberlands a significant amount of wood is removed from the forest and converted to harvested wood products. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is an IPCC-compliant full forest carbon accounting model developed for use in Canada that has been adapted for use in other countries. Changes in natural disturbances in the forest and technological innovation in the use of harvested wood products could substantially alter future carbon trajectories of forests under different management regimes. A key advantage of the CBM-CFS3 model is that in addition to tracking live tree, dead tree, and dead organic matter (DOM) carbon pools in the forest, it also tracks carbon stock changes in harvested wood products. We calibrated the CBM-CFS3 model with US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for seven forest types across three ownership types to predict carbon stock changes under different natural disturbance and harvested wood product utilization futures. Our results illustrate the importance of using a tractable model that can integrate future changes in forest carbon cycling to keep pace with our changing climate and usage of wood products.