Top-down Estimate of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Production in Northeastern Pennsylvania Using Aircraft and Tower Observations

Leaks in natural gas infrastructure release CH4, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of the energy's greenhouse footprint. This study presents two applications of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in northeastern Pennsylvania. First, we used the WRF-Chem mesoscale model at 3km resolution to simulate CH4 enhancements and compared them to observations obtained from a three-week flight campaign in May 2015 over the Marcellus shale region. Methane emission rates were adjusted to minimize the errors between aircraft observations and the model-simulated concentrations for each flight. Second, we present the first tower-based high resolution atmospheric inversion of CH4 emission rates from unconventional natural gas production activities. A year of continuous CH4 and calibrated δ13C isotope measurements were collected at four tower locations in northeastern Pennsylvania. The adjoint model used here combines a backward-in-time Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model coupled with the WRF-Chem model at the same resolution. The prior for both optimization systems was compiled for major sources of CH4 within the Mid-Atlantic states, accounting for emissions from natural gas sources as well as emissions related to farming, waste management, coal, and other sources. Optimized natural gas emission rates are found to be 0.36% of total gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.27-0.45% of production. We present the results from the tower inversion over one year at 3km resolution providing additional information on spatial and temporal variability of emission rates from production and gathering facilities within the natural gas industry in comparison to flux estimates from the aircraft campaign.