The 2015-16 El Niño - Birth, Evolution and Teleconnections from Scatterometer Observations of the Ocean Surface Winds

The 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest events observed during the modern instrumentation period, rivaling the two big ones observed by satellites during 1982-83 and 1997-98. Yet, the precipitation anomalies differ from the expectations that were based on these two events. While El Niño events have a significant impact on the entire Earth System, they are most easily visible in measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean winds near the surface. In fact, the signature eastward-blowing anomalous surface winds in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific are the pre-cursor and the main driver of the El Nino events. Here we use observations from NASA's RapidScat, EUMETSAT's ASCAT and also from collocated ECMWF analysis to monitor the evolution of the anomalous winds associated with the 2015-16 El Niño. To detect the El Nino signal, we first compute monthly means of the wind speed, wind components and wind convergence. We then perform a low-pass filter to extract the components of the larger-scale circulation and compute the 2015-2016 anomalies with respect to the corresponding months of 2014-2015. We find fast-evolving wind anomalies and relate them to the evolution of the SST field as depicted in the observations-based OSTIA product. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between the GPM-observed precipitation and the surface wind convergence observed by the scatterometers. El Niño is known to have basin to global scale teleconnections. In addition to the characterization of the changes in the tropical Pacific, we will also describe the associated changes in the North and South Pacific. In particular, a strong anticyclonic anomaly is observed in the north-eastern Pacific. This anomalous circulation is likely associated with the subsidence (divergent) region of a stronger-than-normal Hadley cell, leading to modification of the midlatitude storm tracks and the related precipitation anomalies. Furthermore, these anomalous northerly winds lead to the recovery of upwelling off the coast of California in 2015 and is expected to have contributed to the cooler SST in 2015 than in 2014 in that region. The work described here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration