Predicting the Subseasonal Features of Taiwan Mei-yu Rainfall and the Extremes
Abstract
May and June is the Mei-yu season in Taiwan. It marks the end of the dry half-year (November-April) and the beginning of the high-risk period with disastrous rainfall events. The period with intense rainfall events during the Mei-yu season is usually located in a narrow time window of about one-month. Therefore, forecast the beginning and duration of the intense period and its extremity is of particular importance to Taiwan. This paper analyzes the predictability of the Mei-yu seasonal total rainfall, the onset of the raining season and the frequency of Mei-yu extreme rainfall events using the hindcast data set generated by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau 2-Tier Forecast System version 2 (TCWB2T2) and the North American Multi-model Ensemble data set. The forecast skill evaluation and its relationship with MJO and BSISO are discussed.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.A33J0399L
- Keywords:
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- 3337 Global climate models;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 0550 Model verification and validation;
- COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICSDE: 1817 Extreme events;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4341 Early warning systems;
- NATURAL HAZARDS