Space-based Lidar Measurements of Greenhouse Gases and Their Projected Impact on Quantification of Surface Sources and Sinks

The measurement of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG), principally CO2 and CH4, from space using active (lidar) sensing techniques has several potentially significant advantages in comparison to missions using passive instrument approaches. A great deal of progress has been made in development of the active methods since the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) 2007 Decadal Survey recommended the ASCENDS mission (Active Sensing of Carbon Emissions, Nights, Days, and Seasons) for NASA's next generation CO2 observing system. Active GHG missions remain in consideration by the current NAS Decadal Survey for Earth Science 2017. In this presentation, we update the measurement characteristics expected for active GHG sensing, test how these measurements will enhance our ability to quantify GHG surface fluxes, and examine the potential role of active sensing to address carbon cycle issues as required for confident projection of carbon-climate interactions. Over the past decade, laser CO2 instrument concepts, retrieval approaches, and measurement techniques have matured significantly, driven by technology advances and by analysis of data from airborne simulators. Performance simulations updated to match the latest developments show substantially lower random errors, better spatial resolution, and more information content for global XCO2 data than just a few years ago. Observing System Simulation Experiments using global flux inversion models show corresponding improvements in resolving surface fluxes and reducing flux uncertainties for the expected lidar data. Simulations including prospective systematic (bias) errors, which are expected to be lesser for the lidar system compared to passive measurements, provide guidance for instrument design requirements. We will comment on the impact of errors in knowledge of the atmospheric state including the need for coincident measurements of O2 column in order to normalize the column abundances to dry air mole fraction. We will also comment on the potential impact of future active missions for CH4. The results indicate that active systems will provide GHG measurements of high quality and spatial sampling that will contribute substantially to knowledge of carbon flux distributions and their dependence on underlying physical processes in critical regions.