Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

The current generation (CMIP5) of Earth System Models (ESMs) shows a huge variability in their ability to represent Southern Ocean (SO) deep-ocean convection and Antarctic Bottom Water, with a preference for open-sea convection in the Weddell and Ross gyres. A long control simulation in a coarse 3o resolution ESM (the GFDL CM2Mc model) shows a highly regular multi-decadal oscillation between periods of SO open sea convection and non-convective periods. This process also happens naturally, with different frequencies and durations of convection across most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al, 2014). Here we assess the impact of SO deep convection and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical atmosphere and ocean via teleconnections, with a focus on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We combine analysis of our low-resolution coupled model with inter-model analysis across historical CMIP5 simulations. SST cooling south of 60S during non-convective decades triggers a stronger, northward shifted SH Hadley cell, which results in intensified northward cross-equatorial moist heat transport and a poleward shift in the ITCZ. Resulting correlations between the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport and ITCZ location are in good agreement with recent theories (e.g. Frierson et al. 2013; Donohoe et al. 2014). Lagged correlations between a SO convective index and cross-equatorial heat transports (in the atmosphere and ocean), as well as various tropical (and ENSO) climate indices are analyzed. In the ocean realm, we find that non-convective decades result in weaker AABW formation and weaker ACC but stronger Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation, likely as a result of stronger SO westerlies (more positive SAM). The signals of AABW and AAIW are seen in the tropics on short timescales of years to decades in the temperature, heat storage and heat transport anomalies and also in deep and intermediate ocean oxygen. Most of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.