Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession

Across ecology, and particularly within microbial ecology, there is limited understanding of the mechanisms governing the relative influences of stochastic and deterministic processes. Filling this knowledge gap is a major challenge that requires the development of novel conceptual paradigms, experiments, and ecological models. Here we (i) present a conceptual model that couples the stochastic/deterministic balance to primary and secondary ecological succession, thereby integrating previously isolated conceptual domains; (ii) evaluate this model over 105 years of ecosystem development, revealing a systematic shift in the type and strength of ecological selection; and (iii) couple empirical data with a new simulation model to elucidate underlying mechanisms and characterize their scale dependency. The insights and conceptual framework provided here represent a nexus for cross-system integration.