Bangs and Meteors from the Quiet Comet 15P/Finlay

Jupiter-family comet 15P/Finlay has been reportedly quiet in activity for over a century but has harbored two outbursts during its 2014/2015 perihelion passage. Here we present an analysis of these two outbursts using a set of cometary observations. The outbursts took place between 2014 December 15.4-16.0 UT and 2015 January 15.5-16.0 UT as constrained by ground-based and spacecraft observations. We find a characteristic ejection speed of V₀ = 300-650 m s^-1 for the ejecta of the first outburst and V₀ = 550-750 m s^-1 for that of the second outburst using a Monte Carlo dust model. The mass of the ejecta is calculated to be M_d = (2-3) × 10⁵ kg for the first outburst and M_d = (4-5) × 10⁵ kg for the second outburst, which corresponds to less than 10^-7 of the nucleus mass. The specific energy of the two outbursts is found to be (0.3-2) × 10⁵ J kg^-1. We also revisit the long-standing puzzle of the nondetection of the hypothetical Finlayid meteor shower by performing a cued search using the 13 yr data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar, which does not reveal any positives. Earth will pass the 2014/2015 outburst ejecta between 2021 October 6 at 22 hr UT and October 7 at 1 hr UT, with a chance for some significant meteor activity in the radio range, which may provide further clues to the Finlayid puzzle. A southerly radiant in the constellation of Ara will favor the observers in the southern tip of Africa.