Reconstructed streamflow in the eastern United States: validity, drivers, and challenges

Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow are uncommon in the eastern US compared to the western US. While the eastern US does not experience severe drought on the scale of the west, multi-year droughts have stressed the water management systems throughout the east. Here, we reconstruct three rivers serving population centers in the northeast (Beaver Kill River serving New York City, NY), mid-Atlantic (Potomac River serving Washington, D.C.), and southeast (Flint River serving Atlanta, GA) to demonstrate the ability to reconstruct in the eastern US. Then, we conducted an interbasin comparison to identify periods of common variability and examined synoptic scale drivers of drought and pluvial events. Finally, we discuss the utility of multi-species reconstructions in the moist, biodiverse eastern US. Our calibration models explained 66 - 68% of the variance in the instrumental record and passed verification tests in all basins to 1675 CE. Drought and pluvial events showed some synchrony across all basins but the mid-Atlantic acted as a hinge, sometimes behaving more like the northeast, and other times like the southeast. Weak correlations with oceanic-atmospheric oscillations made identification of synoptic scale drivers difficult. However, there appears to be a relationship between the position of the western ridge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and streamflow across the basins of the east. Given the many factors influencing tree growth in closed canopy systems, we have shown that careful standardization of individual tree-ring series, nested regression models, and the use of multiple species can produce robust proxies in the east.