Toward quantifying robustness-performance tradeoffs in coupled natural-human systems

The concept of robustness has increasingly been applied to coupled natural-human systems, but its systematic quantification is lacking. Here, through a simple model, we mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework (Anderies, Janssen, & Ostrom, Ecology & Society 2004) that couples resource, human, and infrastructure together. The model links how micromotivators—derived from resource availability, infrastructure functionality, and outside opportunities—affect resulting societal outcomes. Conditions under which the coupled system is sustainable or collapses are clearly derived in terms of the system's social and biophysical factors. Based on these conditions, we can quantitatively describe the tradeoffs between system performance and its robustness against fluctuation of external forcings. In this talk, model development and preliminary results are briefly reported, and potential future analyses discussed. This work is a first step toward systematically quantifying robustness, which is needed if the concept of robustness is to be used in a more meaningful way and achieve more tangible policy outcomes.