Variability in the Geographic Distribution of Fires in Interior Alaska Considering Cause, Human Proximity, and Level of Suppression

The boreal forest of Interior Alaska is characterized by frequent extensive wildfires that have been mapped for the past 70 years. Simple predictions based on this record indicate that area burned will increase as a response to climate warming in Alaska. However, two additional factors have affected the area burned in this time record: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switched from cool and moist to warm and dry in the late 1970s and the Alaska Fire Service instituted a fire suppression policy in the late 1980s. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistics, this presentation evaluates the variability in area burned and fire ignitions in Interior Alaska in space and time with particular emphasis on the human influence via ignition and suppression. Our analysis shows that while area burned has been increasing by 2.4% per year, the number of lightning ignitions has decreased by 1.9 ignitions per year. Human ignitions account for 50% of all fire ignitions in Interior Alaska and are clearly influenced by human proximity: human fires mostly occur close to settlements, highways and in intense fire suppression zones (which are in turn close to human settlements and roads); fires close to settlements, highways and in intense fire suppression zones burn much shorter than fires further away from this sphere of human influence; and 60% of all human fire ignitions in Interior Alaska are concentrated in the Fairbanks area and thereby strongly influence regional analyses. Fire suppression has effectively reduced area burned since it was implemented but the PDO change has also had some influence. Finally, we found that human fires start earlier in the year and burn for a shorter duration than lightning fires. This study provides insights into the importance of human behavior as well as regional climate patterns as large-scale controls on fires over time and across the Alaskan boreal forest.