An Experimental Test of How Different Community Configurations and Environmental Pressures Influence the Susceptibility of Ponds to a Critical Transition

Over the past two centuries, humans have been modifying the planet at an accelerating rate and, in some cases, ecosystems have been observed to experience critical transitions. For example, shallow lakes and ponds may change abruptly from a clear-water, macrophyte-dominated state to a turbid state when exposed to minor increases in stress (e.g., nutrient loading). Yet, abrupt changes in shallow lakes and ponds are not consistently observed and considerable uncertainty remains regarding the ecological and environmental conditions that render these systems susceptible to sudden changes. To address this knowledge gap, we are conducting a mesocosm experiment to quantify how different community configurations and environmental pressures influence the susceptibility of ponds to critical transitions. This research tests the hypothesis that macrophyte density and the rate of external nutrient loading alter the trajectory of phytoplankton dynamics, thus influencing the transition to a turbid state. We supplied 18 mesocosms with field-collected sediment, phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and exposed them to three levels of macrophyte densities and two external nutrient loading regimes. Based on daily measurements of phytoplankton biomass (measured as chlorophyll a), we will apply early warning metrics for identifying critical transitions (e.g., http://www.early-warning-signals.org). Our preliminary results indicate that ponds with no macrophytes and the faster nutrient loading rate yield the greatest rate of increase in chlorophyll a. Key goals of this experiment are to enhance the mechanistic understanding of shallow lake and pond dynamics, and aid in the interpretation of lake sediment records as archives of historical critical transitions.