Simulated Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance of Western US Forests Under Contemporary Climate and Management

Previous projections of the contemporary forest carbon balance in the western US showed uncertainties associated with impacts of climate extremes and a coarse spatio-temporal resolution implemented over heterogeneous mountain regions. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5 to produce 4km resolution forest carbon changes with drought, fire and management in the western US. We parameterized the model with species data using local plant trait observations for 30 species. To quantify uncertainty, we evaluated the model with data from flux sites, inventories and ancillary data in the region. Simulated GPP was lower than the measurements at our AmeriFlux sites by 17-22%. Simulated burned area was generally higher than Landsat observations, suggesting the model overestimates fire emissions with the new fire model. Landsat MTBS data show high severity fire represents only a small portion of the total burnt area (12-14%), and no increasing trend from 1984 to 2011. Moderate severity fire increased ~0.23%/year due to fires in the Sierra Nevada (Law & Waring 2014). Oregon, California, and Washington were a net carbon sink, and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) declined in California over the past 15 years, partly due to drought impacts. Fire emissions were a small portion of the regional carbon budget compared with the effect of harvest removals. Fossil fuel emissions in CA are more than 3x that of OR and WA combined, but are lower per capita. We also identified forest regions that are most vulnerable to climate-driven transformations and to evaluate the effects of management strategies on forest NECB. Differences in forest NECB among states are strongly influenced by the extent of drought (drier longer in the SW) and management intensity (higher in the PNW).