The Future Impact of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in Jordan

Jordan is one of the most water-poor nations in the world in terms of per-capita water availability. The nation's freshwater resources vulnerability is further exacerbated by consecutive drought events during the past two decades. The intensity and frequency of drought occurrence in this region is expected to increase in the future, thus putting additional stress on the existing freshwater resources. To understand the ramifications of future drought conditions, it is important to distinguish among different types of droughts. In this study, we investigate three different drought types in Jordan: meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model to simulate the catchment response to these different types of drought. The magnitude, spatial patterns, and temporal variability of these droughts are analyzed to understand the impact on water resources availability for municipal and agricultural use in Jordan. An important component of this study is the association between crop yield and drought magnitude. This association can be used as a tool to project future crop yields, thus enabling water planners to effectively allocate future available freshwater between the urban and agricultural sectors.