Nutrient Models Developments Using Runoff-Nutrient Relationships in an Agricultural Prairie Basin, Manitoba.

Nutrient export to streams and lakes from agricultural activities can result in significant deterioration of water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. In Western Canada, particular concerns arise for prairie agricultural systems, which are dominated by the effects of a cold climate. Insufficient attention has been given to understand the links between cold region watershed responses and nutrient concentration and a robust watershed-scale modeling framework is needed to simulate nutrient concentration and loads. Long-term, field observations of nutrient concentration-runoff relationships were used to develop nutrient concentration models for the Tobacco Creek Model Watershed (TCMW) which drains into the Red River basin. Field observations include streamflow concentrations of N and P at multiple scales from two headwater basins. Distinct nutrient concentration-runoff models for snowmelt, rain on snow (ROS) and rainfall runoff processes were developed from observed runoff-nutrient concentration relationships. Snowmelt runoff had a moderately positive correlation with particulate nutrient concentrations but no correlation with that of dissolved nutrients. ROS runoff had a weak relationship with both particulate and dissolved nutrient concentrations. Rainfall runoff had the strongest positive correlation with particulate nutrient concentrations but no association with that of dissolved nutrients. The modeling approach also identified a clear hysteretic behavior in the relationship between runoff and particulate nutrient concentration during the 2013 snowmelt runoff event at the basin outlet gauge. The models provide insight into the hydrological controls on nutrient export from cold regions watersheds and the strong effects of inter-annual climatic variability. Snowmelt runoff is a reliable exporter of large nutrient loads while nutrient export by rainfall runoff exceeded snowmelt runoff during hydrologically wet summers such as 2002, 2005, 2011 and 2013.