Simulation of nitrate-concentration variation and estimation of nitrogen-form transformation in groundwater by modified rain-runoff model

Groundwater is an important drinking-water source throughout the world. Nitrate is considered as one of the most widespread contaminant in groundwater and some studies have presented that intake of excess amount of nitrate could be associated with several types of disease. Modeling of nitrate-concentration in groundwater and estimation of nitrogen-form transformation by meteorological effects is necessary for countermeasure to nitrate contamination in groundwater. In this research, groundwater-quality tank model (GQTM) coupled with Fuzzy Optimize Method (FOM) and Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) is proposed to simulate NO3- and Cl- concentrations simultaneously. For the simulation, daily precipitation data and weekly data of NO3- and Cl- concentrations at two observation wells in Kumamoto City for three years (2012-2015) were used. The GQTM coupled with FOM and SCE-UA algorithm provided accurate simulation results in the variations of NO3- and Cl- concentrations. Difference in the concentration-variation ratio between NO3- and Cl- suggested that NO3- concentration variation was mainly due to dilution and concentration processes rather than nitrogen transformation by nitrification-denitrification reaction in the both observation wells. This calculation provides a simple and reliable method in nitrification and denitrification process estimation. The GQTM coupled with FOM and SCE-UA must be useful for managing of groundwater supplies in effective and sustainable manner by providing scientific evidence for the risk of groundwater quality.