Detecting Patterns of Changing Carbon Uptake in Alaska Using Sustained In Situ and Remote Sensing CO2 Observations

The future trajectory of Arctic ecosystems as a carbon sink or source is of global importance due to vast quantities of carbon in permafrost soils. Over the last few years, a sustained set of airborne (NOAA-PFA, NOAA-ACG, and CARVE) and satellite (OCO-2 and GOSAT) atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements have provided unprecedented space and time scale sampling density across Alaska, making it possible to study the Arctic carbon cycle in more detail than ever before. Here, we use a synthesis of airborne and satellite CO2 over the 2009-2013 period with simulated concentrations from CLM4.5 and GEOS-Chem to examine the extent to which regional-scale carbon cycle changes in Alaska can be distinguished from interannual variability and long-range transport. We show that observational strategies focused on sustained profile measurements spanning continental interiors provide key insights into magnitude, duration, and variability of Summer sink activity, but that cold season sources are currently poorly resolved due to lack of sustained spatial sampling. Consequently, although future CO2 budgets dominated by enhanced cold season emission sources under climate warming and permafrost thaw scenarios are likely to produce substantial changes to near-surface CO2 gradients and seasonal cycle amplitude, they are unlikely to be detected by current observational strategies. We conclude that airborne and ground-based networks that provide more spatial coverage in year round profiles will help compensate for systematic sampling gaps in NIR passive satellite systems and provide essential constraints for Arctic carbon cycle changes.