Impact of Air Pollution on California Central Valley Fog Frequency

Throughout the 20th century, trends in California Central Valley fog frequency have changed dramatically without explanation. While episodes of dense radiation fog, known regionally as Tule Fog, increased steadily from 1930-1970, analysis from both ground and remote sensing measurements confirm a 46-50% reduction in fog days in the last 30 years (Baldocchi and Waller, 2014, Herkes et al., 2014). The dominant hypotheses suggest that the recent decline in radiation fog can be explained by the rising temperatures associated with climate change or urban heat island effect. This assertion fails to explain the significant increase in Central Valley fog midcentury. Here we instead assert that changes in air pollution, rather than climate, better support this upward then downward temporal trend. Automobile use greatly increased emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) midcentury, followed by a large decrease in vehicle emissions due to statewide regulation from 1980 to present. In the Central Valley, NOx from automobile emissions contributes to the formation ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3), the dominant hygroscopic aerosol in the valley's wintertime boundary layer that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) necessary for fog droplet formation. Thus, changes in air pollution not only affect the number of CCN, but may also impact the density and persistence of fog episodes. Using NOAA meteorological records throughout the twentieth century, we will show the correlation between fog frequency, air pollution, and climatic drivers. We conclude that fog trends are closely correlated with changes in air pollution, rather than solely climate change.