Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing

The radiative forcing from aviation is investigated by using a comprehensive general circulation model in the present (2006) and the future (2050). Global flight distance is projected to increase by a factor of 4 between 2006 and 2050. However, simulated contrail cirrus radiative forcing can increase by a factor of 7, and thus does not scale linearly with fuel emission mass. Simulations indicate negative radiative forcing induced by the indirect effect of aviation sulfate aerosols on liquid clouds that increasesby a factor of 4 in 2050. As a result, the net 2050 aviation radiative forcing is a cooling. Aviation sulfates emitted at cruise altitude canbe transported down to the lowest troposphere, increasing the aerosolconcentration, thus increasing the cloud drop number concentration and persistenceof low-level clouds. Aviation black carbon aerosols produce a negligible forcing.