Assessing the Accuracy of the Tracer Dilution Method with Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

Landfill methane emissions are difficult to estimate due to limited observations and data uncertainty. The mobile tracer dilution method is a widely used and cost-effective approach for predicting landfill methane emissions. The method uses a tracer gas released on the surface of the landfill and measures the concentrations of both methane and the tracer gas downwind. Mobile measurements are conducted with a gas analyzer mounted on a vehicle to capture transects of both gas plumes. The idea behind the method is that if the measurements are performed far enough downwind, the methane plume from the large area source of the landfill and the tracer plume from a small number of point sources will be sufficiently well-mixed to behave similarly, and the ratio between the concentrations will be a good estimate of the ratio between the two emissions rates. The mobile tracer dilution method is sensitive to different factors of the setup such as placement of the tracer release locations and distance from the landfill to the downwind measurements, which have not been thoroughly examined. In this study, numerical modeling is used as an alternative to field measurements to study the sensitivity of the tracer dilution method and provide estimates of measurement accuracy. Using topography and wind conditions for an actual landfill, a landfill emissions rate is prescribed in the model and compared against the emissions rate predicted by application of the tracer dilution method. Two different methane emissions scenarios are simulated: homogeneous emissions over the entire surface of the landfill, and heterogeneous emissions with a hot spot containing 80% of the total emissions where the daily cover area is located. Numerical modeling of the tracer dilution method is a useful tool for evaluating the method without having the expense and labor commitment of multiple field campaigns. Factors tested include number of tracers, distance between tracers, distance from landfill to transect path, and location of tracers with respect to the hot spot. Results show that location of the tracers relative to the hot spot of highest landfill emissions makes the largest difference in accuracy of the tracer dilution method.