A prediction of a luminous red nova eruption
Abstract
Luminous red novae have been distinguished as a class of stellar eruption in just the past decade. They are hypothesized to be the result of the merger of two main sequence stars. Tylenda et al. (2011) found remarkable confirmation of this hypothesis by showing that OGLE data preceding the 2008 outburst of V1309 Sco exhibited the light curve of a contact binary system with an orbital period spiraling exponentially down to zero.We will present analysis of light curves of KIC 9832227 (= NSVS 5597755) spanning 15 years that show it is a contact binary system with a negative period derivative and second derivative. The data are taken from the NSVS, WASP, and Kepler surveys, and extended by Calvin Observatory measurements in 2013 and 2014.Fitting the orbital phase timing to the exponential model of Tylenda et al. (2011) provides a satisfactory fit of the entire data set. While we cannot yet conclude the system will follow the model fit, the prediction it makes will soon be easily falsifiable. The model predicts the period derivative will very soon exceed measured values for all other contact binary stars and that the stars should merge sometime between summer 2019 and summer 2022. If the model holds up, this star presents the unprecedented opportunity to perform a set of targeted observations of a luminous red nova progenitor and to follow carefully the course of the merger.Tylenda, R., et al. (2011), AA, 528, A114.
- Publication:
-
American Astronomical Society Meeting Abstracts #225
- Pub Date:
- January 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015AAS...22541505M