An investigation of the false discovery rate and the misinterpretation of pvalues
Abstract
The following proposition is justified from several different points of view. If you use P = 0.05 to suggest that you have made a discovery, you will be wrong at least 30 percent of the time. If, as is often the case, experiments are underpowered, you will be wrong most of the time. It is concluded that if you wish to keep your false discovery rate below 5 percent, you need to use a 3sigma rule, or to insist on P value below 0.001. And never use the word "significant".
 Publication:

Royal Society Open Science
 Pub Date:
 November 2014
 DOI:
 10.1098/rsos.140216
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1407.5296
 Bibcode:
 2014RSOS....140216C
 Keywords:

 Statistics  Applications;
 Physics  Data Analysis;
 Statistics and Probability;
 Quantitative Biology  Quantitative Methods
 EPrint:
 Small typo fixed again, at top of page 7 20 Nov