CMSSM, naturalness and the "finetuning price" of the Very Large Hadron Collider
Abstract
The absence of supersymmetry or other new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has lead many to question naturalness arguments. With Bayesian statistics, we argue that natural models are most probable and that naturalness is not merely an aesthetic principle. We calculate a probabilistic measure of naturalness, the Bayesian evidence, for the Standard Model (SM) with and without quadratic divergences, confirming that the SM with quadratic divergences is improbable. We calculate the Bayesian evidence for the constrained minimal supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with naturalness priors in three cases: with only the M_{Z} measurement; with the M_{Z} measurement and LHC measurements; and with the M_{Z} measurement, m_{h} measurement and a hypothetical null result from a √s =100 TeV Very Large Hadron Collider (VLHC) with 3000/fb. The "finetuning price" of the VLHC given LHC results would be ̃400, which is slightly less than that of the LHC results given the electroweak scale (̃500).
 Publication:

Physical Review D
 Pub Date:
 July 2014
 DOI:
 10.1103/PhysRevD.90.015010
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1403.3407
 Bibcode:
 2014PhRvD..90a5010F
 Keywords:

 12.60.Jv;
 Supersymmetric models;
 High Energy Physics  Phenomenology
 EPrint:
 19 pages, 3 figures. Closely matches published version, Phys. Rev. D 90, 015010. Added discussion re effective versus UVcomplete theories. Minor change to title