Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat

Emerging pandemics are increasing in frequency, threatening global health and economic growth. Global strategies to thwart pandemics can be classed as adaptive (reducing impact after a disease emerges) or mitigation (reducing the causes of pandemics). Our economic analysis shows that the optimal time to implement a globally coordinated adaptive policy is within 27 y and that given geopolitical challenges around pandemic control, these should be implemented urgently. Furthermore, we find that mitigation policies, those aimed at reducing the likelihood of an emerging disease originating, are more cost effective, saving between $344.0 billion and $360.8 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today.