Probabilistic Forecasting Analysis of Geomagnetic Indices for IMF Bs-events

Strong southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bs) intervals are important to drive disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere. However, high-accuracy forecast of IMF Bz is not available from current heliospheric models. Here we perform a follow-up study of McPherron and Siscoe [2004] to examine the statistical characteristics of interplanetary plasma/magnetic field and probability distribution function of geomagnetic activity indices for strong IMF Bs intervals. It is shown that the occurrence of long-duration, large-amplitude IMF Bs intervals, related with different solar wind transients (such as ICME, SIR), are preceded by and change with a distinctive set of other solar wind/IMF parameters. We find that solar wind speed is positively correlated with geomagnetic indices, and that strong IMF Bs is the key to trigger storm but not necessarily substorm. We also find that solar wind density weakly affects geomagnetic activity, and the response depends on different kinds of solar wind transients that include the strong IMF Bs-events. We also find that magnetospheric ULF waves are induced by both strong southward IMF intervals and solar wind dynamic pressure disturbances.