Using Chironomid-Based Transfer Function and Stable Isotopes for Reconstructing Past Climate in South Eastern Australia

A transfer-function based on chironomids was created to reconstruct past summer temperatures from a training set comprised of 33 south eastern Australian lakes. Statistical analyses show that mean February temperature (MFT) is the most robust and independent variable explaining chironomid species variability. The best MFT transfer function was a partial least squares (PLS) model with a coefficient of determination (r2Jackknifed) of 0.69, a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) of 2.33˚C, and maximum bias of 2.15°C. The transfer function was tested by applying it to a Late Glacial to Holocene record from Blue Lake, New South Wales using published data. The reconstruction displays an overall pattern very similar to the Milankovitch driven summer insolation curve for 30°S and to the chironomid based summer temperature reconstruction from Eagle Tarn, Tasmania (Rees and Cwynar 2010) suggesting that the model is robust. The transfer function was also applied to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maxium (LGM) summer temperature from Welsby Lagoon, North Stradbroke Island (Queensland). Preliminary results show a c. 4.2~8.6˚C of cooling in summer temperatures during the LGM from south east Australia. Stable oxygen and deuterium isotope composition (δ18O and δD) of the chitnous subfossil head capsules from Australian chironomids were also measured to explore the opportunity developing them as an independent temperature proxy. This is the first application of this technique in the Southern Hemisphere. The modern range of chironomid δ18O values were measured based on the same 33 lakes sampled for the transfer function. For these lakes, head capsules of single genera were picked to avoid complications from 'vital effects'. The relationship of chironomid δ18O to modern lake temperatures has been investigated. Deuterium (δD) on the head capsules has been measured concurrently and the relationship to climate and environment will be explored based on the latest available results. References Rees A.B.H, and Cwynar, L.C. (2010) Evidence for early postglacial warming in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania. Quaternary Science Reviews29, 443-454.