IMPACT: Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in Atmospheres for Conjunction Tracking

Low-Earth orbiting satellites suffer from atmospheric drag due to thermospheric density which changes on the order of several magnitudes especially during space weather events. Solar flares, precipitating particles and ionospheric currents cause the upper atmosphere to heat up, redistribute, and cool again. These processes are intrinsically included in empirical models, e.g. MSIS and Jacchia-Bowman type models. However, sensitivity analysis has shown that atmospheric drag has the highest influence on satellite conjunction analysis and empirical model still do not adequately represent a desired accuracy. Space debris and collision avoidance have become an increasingly operational reality. It is paramount to accurately predict satellite orbits and include drag effect driven by space weather. The IMPACT project (Integrated Modeling of Perturbations in Atmospheres for Conjunction Tracking), funded with over $5 Million by the Los Alamos Laboratory Directed Research and Development office, has the goal to develop an integrated system of atmospheric drag modeling, orbit propagation, and conjunction analysis with detailed uncertainty quantification to address the space debris and collision avoidance problem. Now with over two years into the project, we have developed an integrated solution combining physics-based density modeling of the upper atmosphere between 120-700 km altitude, satellite drag forecasting for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions, and conjunction analysis with non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification. We are employing several novel approaches including a unique observational sensor developed at Los Alamos; machine learning with a support-vector machine approach of the coupling between solar drivers of the upper atmosphere and satellite drag; rigorous data assimilative modeling using a physics-based approach instead of empirical modeling of the thermosphere; and a computed-tomography method for extracting temporal maps of thermospheric densities using ground based observations. The developed IMPACT framework is an open research framework enabling the exchange and testing of a variety of atmospheric density models, orbital propagators, drag coefficient models, ground based observations, etc. and study their effect on conjunctions and uncertainty predictions. The framework is based on a modern service-oriented architecture controlled by a web interface and providing 3D visualizations. The goal of this project is to revolutionize the ability to monitor and track space objects during highly disturbed space weather conditions, provide suitable forecasts for satellite drag conditions and conjunction analysis, and enable the exchange of models, codes, and data in an open research environment. We will present capabilities and results of the IMPACT framework including a demo of the control interface and visualizations.