Connecting white light to in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

We study the feasibility of using a Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument, such as STEREO/HI, for unambiguously connecting remote images to in situ observations of coronal mass ejection (CMEs). Our goal is to develop and test methods to predict CME parameters from heliospheric images, but our dataset can actually be used to benchmark any ICME propagation model. The results are of interest concerning future missions such as Solar Orbiter, or a dedicated space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point (e.g. EASCO mission concept). We compare the predictions for speed and arrival time for 22 CME events (between 2008-2012), each observed remotely by one STEREO spacecraft, to the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) speed and arrival time observed at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). We use forward modeling for STEREO-COR2, and geometrical models for STEREO-HII, assuming different CME front shapes (Fixed-Phi, Harmonic Mean, Self-similar expansion), and fit them to the CME time-elongation functions with the SolarSoft SATPLOT tool, assuming constant CME speed and direction. The arrival times derived from imaging match the in situ ones +/- 8 hours, and speeds are consistent within +/-300 km/s, including CME apex/flank effects. We find no preference in the predictive capability for any of the 3 geometries used on the full dataset, consisting of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km/s). We search for new empirical relations between the predicted and observed speeds and arrival times, enhancing the HI predictive capabilities. Additionally, for very fast and back-sided CMEs, strong differences between the results of the HI models arise, consistent with theoretical expectations by Lugaz and Kintner (2013, Solar Physics). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).