Simulations of Tsunami Triggered by the 1883 Krakatau Volcanic Eruption: Implications for Tsunami Hazard in the South China Sea

The 1883 Krakatau eruption in Indonesia is one of the largest recorded volcanic eruptions in recent history. The associated tsunami claimed about 36,000 lives and recorded run-up heights up to 30 m along the coastal regions in the Sunda Straits between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Our study aims to better understand the generation and propagation mechanisms of this volcano-induced tsunami through modeling quantitatively the tsunami triggering processes at the source region. Comparison of non-linear simulations using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) with observations reveals that a donut-shape 'hole and ring' initial condition for the tsunami source is able to explain the key characteristics of the observed tsunami: A 'hole' of about 6 km in diameter and 270 m in depth corresponds to the collapse of the Krakatau volcano on August 27, 1883, while a 'ring' of uplift corresponds to the deposition of the erupted volcanic materials. We found that the shallowness and narrowness of the entrance pathway of the Sunda Straits limited the northward transfer of the tsunami energy from the source region into the South China Sea. Instead, the topographic and bathymetric characteristics favored the southward transfer of the energy into the Indian Ocean. This might explain why Sri Lanka and India suffered casualties from this event, while areas inside the South China Sea, such as Singapore, did not record significant tsunami signals. Modeling results further suggest that the shallow topography of the surrounding islands around the Krakatau source region might have contributed to a reduction in maximum run-up heights in the coastal regions of the Sunda Straits.