Debris Flow Simulation using FLO-2D on the 2004 Landslide Area of Real, General Nakar, and Infanta, Philippines

From November 14 to December 3, 2004, Luzon Island was ravaged by 4 successive typhoons: Typhoon Mufia, Tropical Storm Merbok, Tropical Depression Winnie, and Super Typhoon Nanmadol. Tropical Depression Winnie was the most destructive of the four when it triggered landslides on November 29 that devastated the municipalities of Infanta, General Nakar, and Real in Quezon Province, southeast Luzon. Winnie formed east of Central Luzon on November 27 before it moved west-northwestward over southeastern Luzon on November 29. A total of 1,068 lives were lost and more than USD 170 million worth of damages to crops and infrastructure were incurred from the landslides triggered by Typhoon Winnie on November 29 and the flooding caused by the 4 typhoons. FLO-2D, a flood routing software for generating flood and debris flow hazard maps, was utilized to simulate the debris flows that could potentially affect the study area. Based from the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, the cumulative rainfall from typhoon Winnie on November 29 which was approximately 342 mm over a 9-hour period was classified within a 100-year return period. The Infanta station of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) was no longer able to measure the amount of rainfall after this period because the rain gauge in that station was washed away by floods. Rainfall data with a 100-year return period was simulated over the watersheds delineated from a SAR-derived digital elevation model. The resulting debris flow hazard map was compared with results from field investigation and previous studies made on the landslide event. The simulation identified 22 barangays (villages) with a total of 45,155 people at risk of turbulent flow and flooding.