A Concept for Providing Warning of Chelyabinsk-like Meteors, including those approaching from the Sun
Abstract
The detonation of a 20m-asteroid above Chelyabinsk, Russia on 2013 February 15 shows that even small asteroids can cause extensive damage. Earth-based telescopes have found smaller harmless objects, such as 2008 TC3, discovered 20h before it exploded over northern Sudan . 2008 TC3 remains the only asteroid discovered before it hit Earth because it approached Earth from the night side, where it was observed by large telescopes searching for near-Earth objects. The larger object that exploded over Chelyabinsk approached Earth from the day side, from too close to the Sun to be detected from Earth. A sizeable telescope in an orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 (SE-L1) libration point 1.5 million km from Earth towards the Sun (about 4 times the distance to the Moon) could find objects like the 'Chelyabinsk' asteroid approaching approximately from the line of sight to the Sun about a day before Earth closest approach; this would find the approximately 35% of asteroids that approach Earth from a direction too close to the Sun to be observed, or likely to be missed, from the ground. Our concept would give at least several hours, and often a day or more, to take protective measures, rather than the approximately two-minute interval between the flash and shock wave arrival that occurred in Chelyabinsk. An important reason for providing warning of these events, even smaller harmless ones that explode high in the atmosphere with the force of an atomic bomb, is to prevent mistaking such an event for a nuclear attack that could trigger a devastating nuclear war. This concept could also discover many small asteroids that would not impact Earth; some of them would likely be suitable for retrieval to move to a lunar orbit for study by astronauts in the next decade. A concept using a space telescope similar to that needed by our concept is already conceived by the B612 Foundation, whose planned Sentinel Space Telescope could find nearly all 140m and larger near-Earth objects (NEO's), including those in orbits mostly inside the Earth's orbit that are hard to find with Earth-based telescopes, from a Venus-like orbit. Few modifications would be needed to the 50cm aperture passively-cooled infrared-observing Sentinel Space Telescope to operate in a SE-L1 orbit, 0.01 AU from Earth towards the Sun, to find most asteroids larger than about 5 meters that approach the Earth from the solar direction. Many objects in the 25-50m range will not be found by current NEO surveys, while they would nearly always be seen by this possible mission. A dense metallic NEO as small as 5m across can rain destruction over an area of 1 or 2 square kilometers, as the Sikhote-Alin meteor showed in 1947 Other concepts are either ineffective at providing warning of asteroids approaching from the Sun, or are more expensive, involving three or more spacecraft. We should give better warning for future 'Bolts out of the blue'.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMNH23D1548D
- Keywords:
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- 4313 NATURAL HAZARDS Extreme events;
- 5420 PLANETARY SCIENCES: SOLID SURFACE PLANETS Impact phenomena;
- cratering;
- 5450 PLANETARY SCIENCES: SOLID SURFACE PLANETS Orbital and rotational dynamics;
- 4341 NATURAL HAZARDS Early warning systems